March 11 2009
Economic Crisis or Reality Bites
Tagged Under : economic crisis solution, financial crisis, retail
No doubt we are going through tough times relative to what most of us are used to.
Whatever the reason(s) the harsh reality is that many people are going to lose their job, or at least have it significantly downgraded.
But were many of these jobs justified in the first place?
Take 3 sectors - Mining, Retail and Financial Services.
Mining (together with agriculture) has been the backbone of the Australian economy for a long time. The past few years have seen unprecedented demand in resources which has created many jobs. There comes a time when they can’t keep building in China however. On top of this we have the environmental concern. I really hope some of those who have invested strongly in shares/joint ventures of Australian mining stocks are having a good look at renewables. Point is that whilst some people have made a dollar, what we have seen within mining over the past couple of years is not, and was never, sustainable.
There seems to be a retailer going into administration every week. Jobs lost as a result. Why do retailers feel the need to open x amount of stores per year? Why not just stick to a good formula, make a good profit and share a bit with your employees? Why employ people at a rate of knots and then wait until a situation like we are in to realise that you are possibly a bit over resourced. No offence to those involved but maybe that merchandise planner’s assistant didn’t need an assistant?
Retail sales growth over the past few years has been distorted by excessive credit coupled with an inflated value of personal assets. Not by wages growth. It will be a fair while I reckon before we gain real momentum in a retail sense.
Many an organisation and individual involved in the financial services sector have profiteered greatly over the past few years. Whilst I am sure there are many of you involved in the sector that had the greatest intentions the reality is this wealth was in most cases built on the insatiable appetite of other individuals and businesses for ‘growth’ and want (not need).
Unfortunately this ‘growth’ was funded in the most part by debt. For a while whilst the good times rolled this appeared to be a case of everyones a winner. Unfortunately that aint the truth.
Now here in Australia and around the world we are faced with massive decline in asset values and unfortunately this becomes a bit of a snowball effect (asset prices devalue, credit harder to come by, demand softens, people lose jobs, demand falls even further, more people lose jobs, asset values fall further and so on).
One thing is for sure and that is that we will come out of this better for the experience. This will only happen when the vast majority of people realise that the ‘wealth’ and ‘growth’ and levels of employment in certain sectors as a result of ridiculous amount of debt were never going to be sustainable.
I just hope, apart from anything else, that what we are going through makes people aware of this and what should be important to them.
Fortunately, you just get the sense that this is starting to happen and in the long run we will all be better for it.

